Monday, August 8, 2011
In Laplace's Philosophical Essay of Probabilities why is the probability 2/8 in the urn problem?
In the 3rd chapter, on the General Principles of the Calculus of Probabilities, in the Fourth Principle there is a problem in which there are 3 urns, 2 containing white and 1 containing black . I do not understand why the "probability of drawing a white ball from the urn C is 2/8..." I understand everything thereafter if you substitute 2/3 for 2/8. I am pretty sure I am missing something, the problem references an example given in a previous chapter, but going back to that chapter did not seem to help. The essay can be found in full text with a simple search.
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